Analysis
Studies
Three questions put to the data, each with its method and limitations.
Negreira case: before / during / after
Do Barça's and Real Madrid's results deviate more from the odds during the payment period than before or after, compared with a control group?
−0.111 pt/match
difference-in-differences of points − expected, q = 0.27
Read the study →VAR in the Liga
What changes in Liga refereeing with the arrival of VAR in 2018-19?
+26%
penalties awarded per match, whole Liga
Read the study →The odds as a benchmark
Do the bookmakers' odds predict clubs' points well enough to serve as a benchmark?
−1.3% / +1.8%
actual − expected points deviation, whole Liga, per season
Read the study →Keep in mind: The deviations described are statistical: they say nothing about any specific decision in a match.