Real Madrid CF2000–19Matches
52
Points
101
Expected
102.8
31 W · 8 D · 13 L
73 ptsdeviation −1.8133 pts
Updated on
Data on refereeing in the Liga
26 seasons, 9,880 matches and 80 referees, compared with what the bookmakers' odds predicted. Every figure can be checked: sources cited, method published, tables downloadable.
Real Madrid CF2000–19Examples chosen by number of matches, not by deviation.
Undiano Mallenco × Real Madrid CF
What the data says
Four results, each with its details and method.
Referee × club deviations after correction
Verdict / q-value With hundreds of comparisons, some look extreme by chance. The Benjamini-Hochberg correction accounts for this: a deviation is only called notable if q < 0.05. Otherwise: inconclusive. Inconclusive does not mean "no effect": with 11 matches, only a deviation of about ±1.57 points per match could have been detected.0notable out of 1,325 pairs
Before correction, 255 tests out of 6,535 fall below p < 0.05: the order of magnitude expected from chance alone.
Summary of verdicts →The odds, a reliable benchmark
Calibration Across the whole Liga, actual points and points expected from the odds differ by only a few % per season: the odds are a reliable benchmark.−1.3% to +1.8%
Deviation between actual points and points expected from the odds, whole Liga, in each of the 26 seasons.
Calibration by season →Effect of VAR (2018-19)
Effect of VAR Whole-Liga average, four seasons before against four seasons after the arrival of VAR. VAR arrives the same season the payments end.+26%
Penalties awarded per match, whole Liga: 0.290 → 0.364 (p = 0.001). VAR coincides with the end of the payments.
The VAR study →Negreira study: before / during / after
Difference-in-differences We measure the club's change between two periods, then subtract the change of a comparison group over the same periods. What remains is the change specific to the club.−0.111pt/match
Difference-in-differences of points − expected, Barça vs control group, 2001-18 → 2018-26: q = 0.27, inconclusive.
Read the study →Where to start
Every club, referee and season has its own page.
Clubs of the 2025-26 season
The 20 clubs of the latest season; 52 clubs in all since 2000-01.
Athletic Bilbao
Atlético Madrid
CA Osasuna
Deportivo Alavés
Elche CF
FC Barcelona
Getafe CF
Girona FC
Levante UD
Rayo Vallecano
RC Celta de Vigo
RCD Espanyol
RCD Mallorca
Real BetisReal Madrid CF
Real Oviedo
Real Sociedad
Sevilla FC
Valencia CF
Villarreal CFMost active referees
Ranked by number of matches refereed only.
- Undiano Mallenco2000-01 → 2018-19346
- Mateu Lahoz2008-09 → 2022-23283
- Gil Manzano2012-13 → 2025-26267
- Hernández Hernández2012-13 → 2025-26255
- César Muñiz Fernández2000-01 → 2013-14248
- David Fernández Borbalán2004-05 → 2017-18242
The 26 seasons
Champion, standings, referees, averages.
2025-262024-252023-242022-232021-222020-212019-202018-192017-182016-172015-162014-152013-142012-132011-122010-112009-102008-092007-082006-072005-062004-052003-042002-032001-022000-01
Underlined marker: arrival of VAR (2018-19). Archives 1990-2000
How it works
Three steps, all documented.
- 1
Open sources
Scores, odds, referees, cards and penalties from 9,880 matches, gathered from public sources, normalised and cross-checked.
- 2
Expected points from the odds
Before each match, the market gives the chances of a win, draw and defeat. Points obtained are compared with these expected points.
- 3
Corrected tests
Every deviation is tested, then corrected for multiple comparisons: a deviation is only called notable if it survives the correction.
Why trust us
- Sources and licencesfootball-data.co.uk, Zenodo, Wikipedia: each file carries its licence.Data
- NeutralityNo ranking by deviation or by "suspicion", morally neutral colours, sample size always shown.About
- Public correctionsFound an error? Report it: every correction is checked and recorded.Corrections
- Liga onlyPrimera División, 2000-01 → 2025-26. Copa del Rey and Champions League: coming later.Methodology
- Non-commercialNo advertising, no paid offer, no commercial ties.Legal notice