# Studies · El Colegiado

> Three neutral studies: the Negreira case (before, during and after the payments), the effect of VAR and the reliability of the odds as a benchmark.

Source: https://elcolegiado.com/studies/

Analysis

# Studies

Three questions put to the data, each with its method and limitations.

- 2000-01 → 2025-26

- 9,880 matches

- Updated on 3 October 2026

- [Method](https://elcolegiado.com/methodology/)

## Negreira case: before / during / after

Do Barça's and Real Madrid's results deviate more from the odds during the payment period than before or after, compared with a control group?

−0.111 pt/match

difference-in-differences of points − expected, q = 0.27

Period: 2000-01 → 2025-26 Context, sourced timeline and statistics

Read the study →

## VAR in the Liga

What changes in Liga refereeing with the arrival of VAR in 2018-19?

+26%

penalties awarded per match, whole Liga

Period: 2014-18 → 2018-22 Penalties, reds, yellows, fouls

Read the study →

## The odds as a benchmark

Do the bookmakers' odds predict clubs' points well enough to serve as a benchmark?

−1.3% / +1.8%

actual − expected points deviation, whole Liga, per season

Period: 2000-01 → 2025-26 Calibration by season and by club, rejected Elo trial

Read the study →

**Keep in mind:** The deviations described are statistical: they say nothing about any specific decision in a match.